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Event: probability_spike
Cost: 0.2 credits per delivery
The probability_spike event fires when a position’s probability changes by at least your configured percentage within a look-back window. The full payload schema is in the auto-generated Probability Spike callback reference; this page documents the filters and matching behavior.

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When to use this

  • Catch sudden swings in implied odds on the markets you follow.
  • Alert when a position crosses into or out of a probability band you care about.
  • Surface fast-moving outcomes with enough trade and volume activity to be meaningful.

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Subscription filters

Add these to the filters object when you create the subscription.
FilterTypeDescription
position_idsstring[]Restrict to specific outcome tokens by position ID (max 500).
condition_idsstring[]Restrict to specific markets by condition ID (max 500).
event_slugsstring[]Restrict to specific events by slug (max 500).
outcomesstring[]Restrict by outcome name, e.g. ["Yes", "No"] (max 500).
min_probability_change_pctnumberMinimum probability change, as a percentage.
min_probabilitynumberMinimum outcome probability, 0.0–1.0.
max_probabilitynumberMaximum outcome probability, 0.0–1.0.
min_txnsintegerMinimum transaction count.
min_volume_usdnumberMinimum traded volume in USD.
spike_directionstringDirection to match: up, down, or both.
window_secsintegerLook-back window in seconds (1–600).
exclude_shortterm_marketsbooleanExclude short-term Up/Down markets.

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Example

{
  "url": "https://your-server.com/webhooks",
  "event": "probability_spike",
  "filters": {
    "min_probability_change_pct": 10,
    "spike_direction": "both",
    "window_secs": 300,
    "min_volume_usd": 5000
  }
}

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Notes

  • window_secs sets the look-back window (1–600 seconds) over which the change is measured.
  • spike_direction controls which moves match: up, down, or both. Defaults to up when omitted.
Last modified on June 3, 2026