Probability Spike - Struct Docs

Event: probability_spike
Endpoint: wss://api.struct.to/ws/alerts
Cost: 0.2 credits per event

Get notified when a position’s probability changes rapidly within a short timeframe. Configure the observation window and minimum change percentage to control sensitivity.

Filters

Filter	Type	Required	Description
`condition_ids`	string[]	No	Restrict to specific conditions (max 500)
`event_slugs`	string[]	No	Restrict to specific events (max 500)
`position_ids`	string[]	No	Restrict to specific positions (max 500)
`outcomes`	string[]	No	Filter by outcome name, e.g. `["Yes", "No"]` (max 500)
`min_probability`	number	No	Lower probability bound (0.0-1.0). Both the baseline and current probability must be ≥ this value. Useful for excluding moves out of resolution extremes
`max_probability`	number	No	Upper probability bound (0.0-1.0). Both the baseline and current probability must be ≤ this value
`min_probability_change_pct`	number	No	Minimum probability change percentage (0-100)
`min_txns`	integer	No	Minimum number of trades accumulated in the current window before a spike can fire
`min_volume_usd`	number	No	Minimum USD volume accumulated in the current window before a spike can fire
`spike_direction`	string	No	Direction filter: `up`, `down`, or `both`. Defaults to `up` when omitted
`window_secs`	number	No	Observation window in seconds (1-600). Also acts as the cooldown between fires for the same position (minimum 30s)
`exclude_shortterm_markets`	boolean	No	Exclude short-term `updown` markets from results

{
  "op": "subscribe",
  "event": "probability_spike",
  "min_probability_change_pct": 10,
  "spike_direction": "both",
  "window_secs": 60
}

Response

{
  "event": "probability_spike",
  "timestamp": 1775913505260,
  "data": {
    "position_id": "0xabc123",
    "condition_id": "0x1234567890abcdef",
    "question": "Will the Fed cut rates in December?",
    "market_slug": "fed-decision-december-2028",
    "event_slug": "us-presidential-election-2028",
    "image_url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/example.png",
    "outcome": "Yes",
    "outcome_index": 0,
    "previous_probability": 0.45,
    "current_probability": 0.62,
    "spike_direction": "up",
    "spike_pct": 37.78
  }
}

​Filters

​Subscribe

​Response

Filters

Subscribe

Response